Last week, many of us were shocked when the EU referendum results were tallied and the Leave campaign came out victorious.Bookies around the UK were kept extremely busy as political betting reached new heights; with The Betfair Exchange EU Referendum market alone garnering £127million. Due to the tumultuous nature of the polls and the fact Leave didn’t get ahead until 2am, the markets were extremely active right up until the last minute when we all knew Leave would be the winning choice.
Betfair ‘Shocked’
Over £85 million was traded on polling day, though many sided with the Remain campaign as it had up to a 94% chance of victory. Betfair had managed to predict the outcome of previous events such as the US election in 2012 and the Scottish Referendum in 2014, however it was clear they had made a mistake this time when Leave became the favourite at 3am.
Over £85M Traded
“The EU referendum market drew a remarkable amount of interest, most notably on the day of the vote itself, trading over £85m,’ Naomi Totten, Spokeswoman for Betfair, explained. “In normal circumstances when a market is showing this much confidence in a result, the probability dictates that it will happen. But this referendum market was as extraordinary as the result itself and Betfair punters were left stunned by the market reaction.“At one point after the Sunderland result had been announced, there was more than £5-10k being traded per second on the market, which is absolutely huge. In contrast, Cheltenham Festival races trade around £2k per second.”